Classic Mistakes - 1 - Ignoring the commitment threshold

One of the classic mistakes we all make when we start playing is ignoring the relative stack sizes (your own as well as the villain’s) and the bets that could potentially commit either of you to the pot, sometimes regardless of any cards that might be dealt subsequently. This was one area that this book had helped me with. I am still trying to get to terms with differing commitment levels based on how good/bad the villain is, the type of hand you have, etc.

I don’t think I have understood the concept well enough to explain it as clearly as the authors of PNLHE, and strongly recommend that you get the book, but am going to use the hand below to try to walk thro’ the thought processes I am trying to develop to see if I, or the villain are committed during any hand.

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Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $37

BTN: $64.05

SB: $30

BB: $82.45

UTG: $37.65

MP: $52.30

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (CO)

UTG folds, MP calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, BTN calls $1.05, 2 folds, MP calls $0.75

Pocket 10s on the cutoff merit a raise, and with the one limper already in, I decide to raise to 3.5 BBs (I usually stick to a 2.5x + 1xBB per limper raise on 6-max tables)

Flop: ($3.60) 8 2 5 (3 Players)

MP checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, MP folds

This as a pretty decent flop for me, no obvious draws on the board, all lower cards to my pocket pair, so I bet just over 1/2 pot. Note - I started the pot with about $37. I have bet about $3, so I have about $34 after the flop bet. The villain had well over $60 when the pot started - for calculating pot-commitment thresholds, we should only worry about the lower stack (mine in this case).

Turn: ($7.60) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $18.60, Hero calls $12.60

I had taken a couple of notes about the villain based on past hands that he’d showed down (mostly against other players) - he re-raised big a couple of times - once with the nut flush draw, and the second time with an inside straight draw. While it was quite possible that he’d hit the 8 and had trips, I didn’t think he’d re-raise it right here, rather, given the size of my bet (almost pot-sized), he might just have smooth-called and tried to extract more value on the river. I put him on either the flush draw or complete air (maybe an ace-high). When he raised the bet to $18, I had less than 16$ left on the river if I called, and that was just about 1/4th of what would be the pot size on the river. That effectively committed me to the pot. Whatever the river card, I would have to push all-in. In fact, I had made a mistake on the turn, if I was going to call that turn bet, I should just have pushed all-in, if I believed that I had a better hand, I should have tried to extract more value right then.

River: ($44.80) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $15.35 and is All-In, BTN folds

I did push all-in on the river, and villain folded! He just needed to be right once in 4 times to break even by calling this bet, and if he had thought that I might do this with something like an ace-high, he should have called this bet. This just makes it all the more probable that he was on a draw that didn’t fill. His mistake was - he must have realized that his raise on the turn pot-committed me; he should either have re-raised me all in, that move might have had some fold equity, or just smooth-called and raised on the river regardless of whether his draw filled up.

Results: $44.80 Pot ($2.20 Rake)
Hero mucked T T and WON $42.60 (+$20.95 NET)