Why your bluff fails – 1

Many times, in the adrenaline rush thats the game, we all try weird bluffs, some are successful, many aren’t. I have been working on analyzing my own handhistories to find out why some of my bluffs failed, and have been trying to track down some of the bluffs that I was able to see thro’.
1. The Mini-bet bluff

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

UTG: $25.50

CO: $72.30

Hero (BTN): $41.80

SB: $94.85

BB: $16.35

Pre-Flop: T 9 dealt to Hero (BTN)

UTG calls $0.30, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.05, SB calls $0.90, 2 folds

Raising with an offsuite 10,9 with a limper in is usually not a good idea, but this was because the table had been very weak-tight, most folding to a raise or to a c-bet. I had been a bit card-dead and felt I should be using my position to steal.

Flop: ($2.70) 2 3 4 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero checks

Its going to be hard to represent much with an all-low flop, if villain had any ace, he was usually going to call any c-bet on the draw. I wanted to look at how villain reacted to the turn and play accordingly.

Turn: ($2.70) J (2 Players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.20

The mini-bet was an absolutely horrible play by the villain. It was a weakish attempt at a probe bet to see if I had a Jack or to see if I could beat a good jack. I decided to raise and then try and take the pot away on the river.

River: ($5.70) A (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB folds

The river seemed like a perfect card for me – and villain’s check seemed to signify that he was giving up. Seemed to me like he had a weak-ish hand like maybe a medium pair that he wanted to take to the river cheaply, and on seeing a couple of overcards and strong bets, decided it was not worth the price. The turn bet basically turned his hand into a bluff, and a bad one at that.

Results: $5.70 Pot ($0.25 Rake)
Hero mucked T 9 and WON $5.45 (+$2.90 NET)

Overall, my story of having a premium hand held up. Funnily enough, what was probably a weak made hand for him turned into a bluff, and my bluff stood up as a premium hand.

2. The desperation bluff – Representing your opponent’s hand!

Many of our bluffs fail because we try to play the board, and represent the nuts only to run into our opponent holding the stone-cold nuts and thanking us for overplaying air.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

MP: $30

CO: $27.40

BTN: $27.15

Hero (SB): $148.80

BB: $45.20

UTG: $24.85

CO posts $0.30
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $1.20, MP calls $1.20, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.05, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($5.10) 4 K 2 (4 Players)

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks

Turn: ($5.10) 8 (4 Players)

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $4.50, MP folds, Hero raises to $9, BB folds, UTG calls $4.50

The turn gave me the nuts. I checked hoping that a second check would get the pre-flop raiser to bet at the pot. Sure enough, he puts in close to a pot-sized bet. I hate these mini-raises when others do it, but looking at his stack size, I wasn’t sure if he’d even consider calling anything more. Calling this made calling an all-in on any river card almost mandatory for him.

At this point, he should have tried to get to a cheap showdown and checked behind with the plan of calling a reasonable-sized river bet. Any King, and just about any higher diamond beats him, betting at the pot turned his hand into a bluff.

River: ($23.10) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $15, UTG calls $14.65 and is All-In

And there he goes..

Results: $52.40 Pot ($2.60 Rake)
Hero showed T A (a flush, Ace high) and WON $49.80 (+$24.95 NET)
UTG mucked 9 9 (a flush, Queen high) and LOST (-$24.85 NET)

Villain had a decent starting hand, and chickened out on c-betting the flop. A pot-sized continuation bet, or even an all-in bet on the flop might have helped him take the pot down. All his bets and calls after that are just from sheer desperation more than anything else. He could have gotten out after being re-raised on the turn. He called trying to represent the flush, but didn’t try to figure what I would be re-raising with.

---

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $47.55

BB: $65.45

UTG: $32.90

CO: $98

BTN: $53.30

Pre-Flop: 7 8 dealt to Hero (SB)

UTG folds, CO raises to $1.05, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.40) A 6 6 (2 Players)

Hero checks, CO bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

The reason for calling a Pre-flop raise with a suited connector is to win big and try to draw out. This flop seemed a reasonable flop for my 8,7 of spades. I called with the plan of raising and taking the pot away on the turn or river regardless of whether the flush came thro’ or not.

Turn: ($6.60) 8 (2 Players)

Hero checks, CO checks

This gave me a pair to go with my flush draw, not the top pair on the board, but some more outs for me. Was planning on a check-raise here. In hindsight, should have bet at this to represent a strong hand.

River: ($6.60) 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5

The flush did come, and I bet hoping that a near-pot-sized bet from me would chase the villain away. Wasn’t too happy when I got called.

Results: $16.60 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Hero showed 7 8 (a flush, Ace high) and LOST (-$8.15 NET)
CO showed Q J (a flush, Ace high) and WON $15.80 (+$7.65 NET)

Yep, I didnt have it. In hindsight, I might have tried to either re-raise the flop c-bet or put in a pot-sized bet on the turn.

On Monkey Tilt?

The last 1500 hands or so have been pretty brutal, especially when compared to my (unsustainably) high win rate during the first couple of weeks of the month. This is what a ~400BB downswing can look like -

My first take on this, obviously, was that I am on monkey tilt and maybe not catching as many cards as I was, hence, running bad as well. I was going thro’ a few hands where I lost big pots to see if I was tilting, making stupid bets or calls, etc. Here are a few of those -

---

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

My table image was that of a maniac, I was raising most hands, re-raising pre-flop and re-raising c-bets a lot. I was showing down a lot of crappy hands that had connected with the flop, calling down 3 streets with mid/bottom pair sometimes.

MP: $85.45

CO: $66.80

BTN: $100.30

SB: $59.40

Hero (BB): $46.25

UTG: $21.80

Pre-Flop: A 9 dealt to Hero (BB)

4 folds, SB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.60

I decided to just call given that I was going to have position on SB for the hand, moreover, everybody else had folded to him, if I were him, I would have raised with any two cards. I figured that there was a good chance that I had the better hand. I also had no specific reads on the villain, dont think he was on the table for a very long time.

Flop: ($1.80) 4 J 9 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $8,

Generally, a pair with the nut flush draw with 2 cards to come is generally a very strong hand and I play them very fast. My objective was to get all-in if possible right away or to make the villain fold. At this level (NL30), I’ve found that overbets are usually called down because villains usually think its just an attempt to buy the pot; depending on the villain and my table image, I use this tactic now and then.

SB raises to $24, Hero raises to $45.35 and is All-In, SB calls $21.35

Villain obliged by re-raising and then calling my all-in.

Turn: ($92.50) 2 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

River: ($92.50) 4 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Unfortunately my flush didn’t fill in, and I didn’t catch any of my other outs (Aces or nines). Now anything better than a pair of nines beats me.

Results: $92.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed K K (two pair, Kings and Fours) and WON $89.50 (+$43.25 NET)
Hero showed A 9 (two pair, Nines and Fours) and LOST (-$46.25 NET)

Villain had cowboys! Much better than the range I’d put him on, and that was about 150BB down the crapper.

---

Was this a bad push? Was I tilting when I pushed all-in with the nut flush draw and middle pair on the board? My first impulse as soon as the river was dealt was that I was tilting and was spewing left, right and center.

Then I tried to be more objective about it, and here is what I figured -

Board: 4h 9h Jh
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied
Hand 0: 	69.224%  	68.54% 	00.68% 	         64465 	      640.50   { Ah9s }
Hand 1: 	30.776%  	30.09% 	00.68% 	         28304 	      640.50   { 88+, A8s+, KTs+, AJo+, KQo }

Even after assigning a reasonably tight range for villain, I still had close to 70% equity in the pot. Once my overbet was re-raised, with all the dead money in the middle, it was pretty much an automatic all-in. The only question now is – was my overbet a smart move! While it might have chased away any villain without at least a pair of jacks and one other heart most of the times, it probably was a bit too spewish! I still have to think about this a bit more to figure out what my line should have been.

Horrible Plays – 2

Here is a very “nice” example of horrible plays – both by me and by the villain.

---

Just to set some context, I didn’t have a lot of history with the villain before this hand, I had been playing pretty LAGgy at the table for a while, raising a lot pre-flop, entering a lot of pots, and generally very loose. I am sure my table image must have been pretty fishy, probably that of a maniac.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

BTN: $56.95

SB: $60

BB: $29.95

UTG: $28.10

Hero (MP): $38.85

CO: $64.30

Pre-Flop: 5 4 dealt to Hero (MP)

UTG calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, 3 folds, BB raises to $3.60, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.55

Extremely loose pre-flop raise by me, about par for course for this session. This was the 3rd or 4th consecutive pre-flop raise that somebody was 3-betting me with, and given that villain had been quiet for a while plus me having position on him, I decided to call and see how I could take this away after the flop. In hindsight, a pretty bad call, I should have folded.

Flop: ($7.65) T J 6 (2 Players)

Dream flop for me! Hit the flush right out the door. I was trying to figure out how to get all the money into the middle before a fourth diamond hit the board and killed any action.
BB bets $26.35 and is All-In, Hero calls $26.35

The villain pushed all-in. It was highly improbable that he also had 2 diamonds, at worst, he might be doing this with one big diamond, and with a less than 40% chance for him to complete that draw, it was an easy call for me – Any pair was pretty much dead on this flop, if he had a set, the villain was drawing to 7 outs and would get the full house about 1 out of 3 times. I was only a big dog if he had a higher flush, and I decided it was worth the price.

Turn: ($60.35) A (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

River: ($60.35) A (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

I definitely didn’t like these two cards – if villain had even one diamond, I was dead, if villain had pushed all in with a set, I was dead.

Results: $60.35 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB showed K K (two pair, Aces and Kings) and LOST (-$29.95 NET)
Hero showed 5 4 (a flush, Ace high) and WON $57.35 (+$27.40 NET)

As it turns out, villain had panicked on the flop, and hoped that a massive overbet would scare me away and would chase me off of any draws. My bad play pre-flop was rewarded because of this mistake.

Here is why that was a bad play -

Pre-flop – villain could have estimated that he probably had the best hand especially given the range of hands I’d been raising and opening with. His re-raise was good.
Flop – this was a pretty bad flop for him, especially given that he had 2 black kings. Checking it down after re-raising pre-flop was too weak, and it was pretty bad for him that he was out of position against me. Apart from the flush draw, the T and J also would have hit my re-raise calling range pretty hard. He now had to worry about two-pairs, a set, and probably a straight draw as well! Given all of this, his focus should have been on getting to a showdown as cheaply as possible – he was at best a small favorite against a smaller pair or a bare flush draw, about even money against a pair with a flush or straight draw, and almost dead against a set or a  made flush. If he had just wanted to deny proper odds for me to draw to a flush or straight, he should just have bet about 2/3 to the pot.

By betting all-in, he effectively risked $26 to win $7, chased away all worse hands that he could have gotten some value from, and the only hands that beat him are going to call the bet!!

I was in a very similar phase some time back, convinced that betting strong would chase away most hands, I never used to think about why or with what types of hands anybody would be calling my bets – there are many scenarios where its much better to check or make a smaller “blocker” bet – these will help you figure out where you stand, if villain raises, you are probably beaten, throw away your hand and wait for a better time. If not,  you’ve gotten some value for your hand.

Even now, I am trying to figure out the borderline between getting to a cheap showdown in scenarios like this (where I have the pair versus a strong possible made hand or strong draw), and extract values from weaker hands and weaker players who don’t even recognize that a much stronger hand is actually possible from the board!

Classic Mistakes – 1 – Ignoring the commitment threshold

One of the classic mistakes we all make when we start playing is ignoring the relative stack sizes (your own as well as the villain’s) and the bets that could potentially commit either of you to the pot, sometimes regardless of any cards that might be dealt subsequently. This was one area that this book had helped me with. I am still trying to get to terms with differing commitment levels based on how good/bad the villain is, the type of hand you have, etc.

I don’t think I have understood the concept well enough to explain it as clearly as the authors of PNLHE, and strongly recommend that you get the book, but am going to use the hand below to try to walk thro’ the thought processes I am trying to develop to see if I, or the villain are committed during any hand.

---

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $37

BTN: $64.05

SB: $30

BB: $82.45

UTG: $37.65

MP: $52.30

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (CO)

UTG folds, MP calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, BTN calls $1.05, 2 folds, MP calls $0.75

Pocket 10s on the cutoff merit a raise, and with the one limper already in, I decide to raise to 3.5 BBs (I usually stick to a 2.5x + 1xBB per limper raise on 6-max tables)

Flop: ($3.60) 8 2 5 (3 Players)

MP checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, MP folds

This as a pretty decent flop for me, no obvious draws on the board, all lower cards to my pocket pair, so I bet just over 1/2 pot. Note – I started the pot with about $37. I have bet about $3, so I have about $34 after the flop bet. The villain had well over $60 when the pot started – for calculating pot-commitment thresholds, we should only worry about the lower stack (mine in this case).

Turn: ($7.60) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $18.60, Hero calls $12.60

I had taken a couple of notes about the villain based on past hands that he’d showed down (mostly against other players) – he re-raised big a couple of times – once with the nut flush draw, and the second time with an inside straight draw. While it was quite possible that he’d hit the 8 and had trips, I didn’t think he’d re-raise it right here, rather, given the size of my bet (almost pot-sized), he might just have smooth-called and tried to extract more value on the river. I put him on either the flush draw or complete air (maybe an ace-high). When he raised the bet to $18, I had less than 16$ left on the river if I called, and that was just about 1/4th of what would be the pot size on the river. That effectively committed me to the pot. Whatever the river card, I would have to push all-in. In fact, I had made a mistake on the turn, if I was going to call that turn bet, I should just have pushed all-in, if I believed that I had a better hand, I should have tried to extract more value right then.

River: ($44.80) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $15.35 and is All-In, BTN folds

I did push all-in on the river, and villain folded! He just needed to be right once in 4 times to break even by calling this bet, and if he had thought that I might do this with something like an ace-high, he should have called this bet. This just makes it all the more probable that he was on a draw that didn’t fill. His mistake was – he must have realized that his raise on the turn pot-committed me; he should either have re-raised me all in, that move might have had some fold equity, or just smooth-called and raised on the river regardless of whether his draw filled up.

Results: $44.80 Pot ($2.20 Rake)
Hero mucked T T and WON $42.60 (+$20.95 NET)

Need Patience!

I am one of the most impatient people that I know! This is something that poker has been teaching me, but slowly, way too slowly!

I decided to take a stab at .25/.5 heads-up NL yesterday. I sat down with $30 and played patiently for a bit chipping up to about $39 or so. Villain seemed a bit too passive for heads-up play; I used to play a lot of heads-up sit-n-gos and aggression used to be the key. This villain was folding a lot of times on the button, just giving up whenever I raised out of the button, folding to my re-raises every single time, and so on. I guess that let me get a bit too cocky. Then this hand happens -

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

BB: $60.45

Hero (SB): $39.35

Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $1.25, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.50) 3 T 6 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($6.50) 8 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $16, Hero raises to $36.10 and is All-In, BB calls $20.10

River: ($78.70) 2 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $78.70 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
BB showed 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights) and WON $78.20 (+$38.85 NET)
Hero showed T A (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$39.35 NET)

---

*ouch*

What was I thinking! Top pair facing a re-raise on the turn is never good*! God, give me patience, and gimme right now!!

*Google for “baluga’s theorem“, very interesting read.